Phase I: Future Reports
Phase I includes four final reports: a Future Forces Report which identifies the most probable principle drivers of change in the near and far future, a Future Scenario Report which uses the forces identified in the Future Forces Report to develop five potential scenarios for public transit agencies, an interactive Map of the Future which transit agencies can use to explore possible futures and subsequent courses of action, and a final summary report submitted and published by the Federal Transit Administration.
The Future Forces Report
The Future Forces Report combines industry research, expert interviews, and stakeholder interviews, to identify the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are quickly shaping the future. Transit agencies can use the insights in this report to better understand the forces that will shape public transportation in the next decade to make future-focused decisions today. The content is designed to provoke insights about how transit agencies might change to better prepare for unpredictable futures and to provide a framework for meaningful discussions about possible futures.
The Future Scenario Report
The Future Scenarios Report builds on the Future Forces report by presenting five distinct and plausible scenarios that may unfold for transit agencies over the next 10 years. The future of transportation and public transit systems will likely contain elements and trends from each of these five scenarios. The report aims to provoke report readers’ imaginations and support their evaluations of growth, constraint, collapse, and transformation future scenarios.
The Map of the Future
The Map of the Future is an interactive toolkit that brings together the Future Forces and Future Scenarios. By considering a wide range of future possibilities—each with its own pathway toward transformation, set of implications, and trade-offs—transit agencies can prepare to face the future. Report readers can tailor details of the future forces, impact zones, or scenarios to the unique characteristics of their agency, city, and public transit system, and use this toolkit as a starting point for exploring future possibilities in your own location.
Phase I Final FTA Report
The NTAS Phase I FTA Final Report summarizes the research, scenarios, findings, and conclusions from the Future Forces Report, the Future Scenarios Report, and the Map of the Future.
As of June 2024, the NTAS Phase I FTA Final Report is completed. A preliminary version of the report is published here, and the final version is being processed by the FTA and will be posted to this website upon publication.