Phase IV: Data Model
Phase IV is comprised of two sections; first, an analytical framework to assess the effectiveness of transit system interventions, and second, a qualitative assessment of possible transit system interventions and their respective impacts on the transit rider personas identified in National Transit Adaptation Strategy (NTAS) Phase II.
The term “intervention” is used to encompass both internal and external changes that may influence transit ridership, such as changes in service delivery, fare adjustments, and safety improvements.
Ridership Analytical Framework
This section, created by SFMTA’s research partners at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), develops an analytical framework for transit agencies to quantify the effects of transit system interventions on transit ridership to aid transit agencies in identifying effective measures to enhance ridership.
This analytical framework provides transit agencies with a data model that can be used to project average weekday and weekend ridership after an identified intervention point in which the model assumes that no interventions are made. This assumed projection can then be compared to actual ridership data following an intervention to assess whether or not there is correlation between intervention implementation and ridership outcomes.
The data model developed will be made available in the form of a code package that data development teams and individuals may access and download freely. The data model will be published in conjunction with publication of the NTAS Phase IV FTA Report, anticipated to be released by Spring of 2025.
Impacts of Transit Interventions on Rider Personas
This section, created by SFMTA’s internal NTAS team, provides a qualitative analysis of the impacts that transit system interventions could have on transit riders. Building off of the rider personas developed in NTAS Phase II, this section allows transit agencies to compare how each intervention would impact the rider personas.
SFMTA identified four common intervention categories that the interventions that transit agencies in the United States and Canada have implemented can be organized by: Fare and Payment Interventions, Service/Operational Interventions, Capital Investment Interventions, and Staffing and Security Interventions.
This section will be particularly useful if a transit agency decides to take efforts to increase the number of riders belonging to a certain persona, as the agency can check to see which interventions would benefit a given persona the most and direct resources and efforts toward realizing those interventions.
Phase IV FTA Final Report
As of September 2024, the data model and qualitative assessments are complete, and the NTAS Phase IV FTA Final Report is drafted and being reviewed by project stakeholders ahead of submission to the FTA.